Week 5: Flipping Coins



WHAT!?!?  Keith caught up to me???



Well I'd love to boast and brag about my 80% success rate against the spread last week, but then I'd have to remind you of my 20% rate in Week 3.  Fortunately these two weeks balance out to a nice even 50%, meaning I'm at least keeping pace with the monkey flipping coins!  Alright, on to the Week 5 "expert" picks.....

• Arizona Cardinals (-1.5 / U 39.5) @ St. Louis Rams

While I managed to correctly pick the Rams in an upset last week, I'm not sure they can do it again.  While the Cards still have a few notable problems (QB play, poor O-line, lack of a running game), the Rams seem to have all of those problems and more!  The Cardinals have been able to get by on the great play of their defense, but that is another problem area for the Rams.  I think defense prevails here, Cardinals 20 - Rams 16.

• Miami Dolphins @ Cincinnati Bengals (-3 / U 45.5)

Miami has been a bit of a surprise this year as they have played much better than most expected.  They have been able to shut down opponents' running games all year, but I think they will have their hands full containing A.J. Green.  Could have gone either way here, but I'll take the home team in a close one, Bengals 24 - Dolphins 20

• Green Bay Packers (-6.5 / O 47.5) @ Indianapolis Colts

Packers favored by less than a touchdown here, but I'm surprised it's not more.  Luck has looked pretty solid as far as rookie QBs go, but the Colts have nothing on defense.  Colts may put up some points, but I'm betting Aaron Rodgers and Co. pick apart the Indy secondary.  Pack covers here, Packers 31 - Colts 20

• Baltimore Ravens (-5.5 / O 45.5) @ Kansas City Chiefs

The Chiefs look pretty bad.  I probably gave them a little too much respect for beating the (now 0-4) Saints, but then the Chargers crushed them last week.  Granted all of the turnovers were probably a bit of a fluke, but I think this has the potential to be another lopsided affair.  The Ravens are legit (certainly better than the Chargers) and will likely pound KC here.  Ravens 30 - Chiefs 17



Browns' coach Pat Shurmur, probably
wondering why he agreed to coach in
Cleveland



• Cleveland Browns @ New York Giants (-8.5 / O 44)

I felt pretty good about picking the Browns last week and getting it right!  But let's remember, they only "won" with the 12.5 point spread they were spotted. As far as actual wins and losses, Cleveland hasn't looked strong.  This isn't surprising given the lack of talent on their roster.  Given that, I think the G-men roll here with a relatively easy win at home, Giants 31 - Browns 16

• Philadelphia Eagles (+3.5 / O 43) @ Pittsburgh Steelers

This game is a very difficult one to call.  The Steelers should be getting key players back on defense (Polamalu, Harrison) as well as offense (Mendenhall).  The Eagles are coming off of a big Sunday Night win against the rival Giants.  But we frequently see a "let-down" game after a big, emotional, primetime win like that.  I'll hedge my bets on this one and take the Steelers to win, but I'll take the Eagles with the points.  Steelers 24 - Eagles 21

• Atlanta Falcons (-3 / O 50) @ Washington Redskins

Despite almost falling to Carolina last week, the Falcons are for real.  Matt Ryan, Roddy White, Julio Jones, and Tony Gonzalez make up one of the most prolific passing attacks in the NFL, and most other teams will have a hard time keeping up.  The Redskins pulled off a nice upset last week, but I think they'll be in over their head here.  Redskins pass defense ranks among the worst in the league, so I expect some fireworks.  Falcons 34 - Redskins 24


Cam Newton may think he is Superman, but Seattle's
defense could be a dose of Kryptonite...



• Seattle Seahawks (+3 / U 43.5) @ Carolina Panthers

Both teams here are coming off of a close loss, but I think Seattle's defense is the key in this matchup.  They should be able to find a way to limit Cam's attack.  Meanwhile on the other side, I expect Marshawn Lynch to beast his way to a big game.  Seahawks 20 - Panthers 17

• Chicago Bears @ Jacksonville Jaguars (+6 / U 41)

Common sense would seem to dictate the Bears as the obvious pick here.  But it's in Jacksonville, and the Bears are coming off of a short week.  Combine that with the fact that the Bears always seem to lack consistency (consistently lack consistency?) and I think the Jags may surprise people here.  Throw in a heavy dose of the Pocket Hercules, MJD, and I think the Jags keep it close.  Bears 20 - Jaguars 16

• Tennessee Titans @ Minnesota Vikings (-5.5 / U 44)

Vikings have surprised a lot of people this year, but it shouldn't when you look at their setup.  They have a solid defense with a good pass rush (Jared Allen always causes problems), they have one of the best running backs in the game with Adrian Peterson, and quarterback Christian Ponder has been completing a very high percentage of his passes while limiting his mistakes.  Titans on the other hand are looking at another struggle.  Jake Locker was injured last week, so he won't be playing.  Chris Johnson finally had a game that fantasy owners were looking for, but I think he'll regress this week against the Vikings stout run defense.  Vikings 24 - Titans 16



We've seen these guys duel many times over the
last decade, but now Peyton will be sporting a
different jersey.



• Denver Broncos @ New England Patriots (-6.5 / O 51)

Manning vs. Brady.  It's been probably the most compelling matchup of the last decade, and it always seems to produce an instant classic.  People still frequently reference Belichick's decision to go for it on 4th and 2 (which, by the way, I believe was the right call in that scenario).  I think that Brady will have the edge here with superior weapons and a better coaching staff, but I doubt Peyton lets them run away with it.  I think the Broncos fall just short, Patriots 34 - Broncos 27

• Buffalo Bills (+10 / O 44) @ San Francisco 49ers

Despite a strong start last week, Bills ended up getting crushed by the Patriots.  But that didn't even compare to how well the 49ers dismantled the Jets.  That being said, 10 points is a lot to cover.  Especially for a defensive minded team like the Niners.  I'll take the points, 49ers 26 - Bills 20

• San Diego Chargers (+3.5 / U 54) @ New Orleans Saints

So I'm torn on this one.  I think the Chargers big win in KC was a bit of a mirage, just like the Saints' 0-4 record is a mirage.  The Saints aren't going to go winless this season, and I think they'll get their first one here in a big primetime Sunday Night game at home.  My SD bias will have me taking the points, but I think New Orleans ends up with the W.  Saints 27 - Chargers 24

• Houston Texans (-7.5 / U 41.5) @ New York Jets    

It's time for the "New York Jets" to change their name to the "New York Paper Airplanes".  But that might still be giving them too much credit, because at least a paper airplane can fly.  I discussed in my Week 4 Breakdown that I believe a QB change is imminent.  Not just because of Tebow's popularity and fan/media support, but also because Sanchez has managed to underperform against exceptionally low expectations.  The team's two best players (Revis and Holmes) are now officially done for the year, so I think these upcoming Jets games are going to be ugly.  I know one of my (very few) readers is a Jets fan and won't enjoy reading this, but I think this person needs to face the facts.  As for the Texans....well, they are still really good, and I don't see any reason why they would slip up here.  Texans 27 - Jets 10



Previous Week - Pick 'em: 12-3 (80%), ATS: 12-3-0 (80%), O/U: 9-5-1 (64%)                             

2012 Season - Pick 'em: 17-14 (55%), ATS: 15-15-1 (50%), O/U: 18-12-1 (60%)



Pick-6: Take it to Vegas....

Vikings -5.5
Texans -7.5
Seahawks +3
Packers -6.5
Ravens -5.5
Cardinals -1.5

Previous Week's Results: 6-0 (100%)

2012 Season Results: 6-6 (50%)


And if you're playing along at home, feel free to post your picks, comments, and thoughts below.

-KJ