Week 14: Appetizer

Can someone please get Peyton a helmet that actually fits?

Seriously, why does Peyton always wear a helmet that is roughly 10 sizes too small?  From all of his days in Indy and Denver, it seems like every time he takes off his helmet there is a big red spot from where the helmet appears to be crushing his skull.  Granted, it doesn't seem to affect his play since he has consistently been one of the best quarterbacks in the game.  But really, can't someone order him a bigger helmet?  Manning is making $18 million this year, so I would imagine he could afford it....

Unfortunately for the Raiders, Peyton has still been able to play at a high level despite his brain being squeezed out his ears.  The Broncos are battling for playoff position while the Raiders are playing for....well....I'm not sure.  Maybe their motivation is to suck less than the Chiefs and Chargers.  Who knows.  That being said, I do think they will manage to keep this game semi-close.  The Thursday Night games have been notoriously sloppy and low-scoring, plus the game is at home for the Raiders.  I don't think Peyton & Co. will have much trouble getting out of here with a win, but the 10.5 point spot seems a little too generous.  I'll say Broncos 27 - Raiders 20.  (So Raiders +10.5 and Under 49).

Previous Week - Pick 'em: 10-6 (63%), ATS: 6-8 (43%), O/U: 7-6 (54%)                             

2012 Season - Pick 'em: 100-45-1 (69%), ATS: 74-65-5 (53%), O/U: 72-55-1 (57%)


Pick-6: Take it to Vegas....

(not this game)
 

Previous Week's Results: None made... (0%)

2012 Season Results: 29-25-3 (54%)

Week 13: Flipping Coins

So I've been slacking lately, missing the post for the Sunday/Monday Week 12 slate of games.  I choose to blame the fact that I am in the middle of being out of town for 6 weeks for work.  And the one weekend I got to spend at home was spent dealing with a plumbing issue, three consecutive flat tires on a bike ride (yes, three!), and crushing defeats for UCLA in both football and basketball.  So a rough weekend, hopefully you can cut me some slack for not posting my picks.  I can however show you that my picks were made, just not posted here.  (And you can tell they are mine, with the names "TROUBLE'S BRUIN" and "GO BRUINS")

Week 12: Turkey Edition

Happy Thanksgiving!  It's always nice to celebrate a holiday founded upon the idea of eating obscene amounts of food and watching football all day.......errr......well, a quick google/wikipedia search seems to suggest that wasn't the actual idea behind Thanksgiving.  Regardless, we will be thankful for the opportunity.

Houston Texans (-3) @ Detroit Lions - Lions always get one of the Thanksgiving games, but that doesn't mean they have any advantage.  They still seem to be in disarray, while the Texans look like one of the most complete teams in the league.  Texans cover (under 49.5), Texans 27 - Lions 20

Washington Redskins (+3.5) @ Dallas Cowboys - RG3 is coming off of a spectacular game while the Cowboys are trying to bounce back from a near loss to the Browns.  I just can't trust the Cowboys, and they never seem to have any advantage at home.  I feel like this will be a close game, so I'll take the points (over 47.5).  Redskins 28 - Cowboys 27

New Englan Patriots (-6.5) @ New York Jets - I still don't buy the Jets at all.  And even without the Gronk, New England is still a scary team.  They are never afraid to run up the score, especially against their hated rivals.  I'll say they cover and stay under 49.  Patriots 31 - Jets 13

And while I feel a little uneasy about picking three road teams on the short week, I still like all three games.  I'll actually toss all 3 into the "Pick-6" section, so let's see what the visitors can do!

-KJ

Week 11: Flipping Coins

What, you San Diego fans expected something different this year?  Didn't you watch any of the last few seasons?

So I've been back home over the weekend and I almost completely forgot about my picks.  I'm sitting here with about 20 minutes to kickoff, so I'm going to have to knock this out really quick.  Please excuse my any typos, lack of commentary, or just plain bad picks.  I'll be blaming all of that on my lack of time.

Week 11 Appetizer



Hundreds of TV's, drinks being served, opportunities to win or lose large amounts of cash.....what more could you want?


So as I mentioned in my previous post, I was indeed in Vegas this past weekend.  While it was close to a overdose of sports, it was certainly nice to get that fix of NFL, college football, and even some college hoops.  I'll probably share a few more comments in my full Week 11 post, but I will say that I made it back in one piece with more money in my pocket than I started with.  So in other words, the trip was a success.

Tonight's Dolphins-Bills matchup doesn't seem very compelling, but then again, most of these Thursday games haven't been.  Two below-average AFC East teams without many superstars, but that should at least make it a competitive game.  The Bills will be without Fred Jackson due to a concussion, but this could actually benefit them as C.J. Spiller has been the far more effective and dynamic running back. 

On the other side, Reggie Bush has received a lot of press over his benching last week.  He is trying to cure a case of fumbilitis, and I think he will make a point of having a big game here.  I give Miami the slight edge overall, but the game is being played in Buffalo.  When I left Vegas on Monday, the Dolphins were favored by 1.  Now they are a 2.5/3 point underdog.  Not sure what changed, but since I think the game is a toss-up, I'll take the Dolphins and the 3 point spot (and under 46 points).  And with so many tough calls this week, I'll go ahead and throw this one in my Pick-6 segment....although sadly I will not be in Vegas to put my money where my mouth is this time.  Dolphins 20 - Bills 17

-KJ

Week 10: Flipping Coins

Hopefully this trip will not have any fear or loathing...

Week 10:  So I'm actually on I-15 right now on the way to Vegas (as a passenger, not blogging while driving).  This means my "Pick-6: Take it to Vegas" segment will be a little more literal this week.  That being said, I'm just going to jot down some brief notes on the games.  Hopefully my next post will be next to a stack of cash rather than a stack of torn up betting slips....

---

Colts 20 - Jaguars 16  [Colts -3, U 41]*

Patriots 31 - Bills 17  [Pats -11, U 52.5] - Belichick has never been afraid to run up the score, and the Pats seem to do that frequently with the Bills.  I'd expect a blowout

Giants 27 - Bengals 21  [Giants -3.5, U 48.5] - Like the G-Men here, they tend to play well on the road.  Outside of A.J. Green the Bengals aren't too scary, Giants cover.

Chargers 23 - Bucs 20  [Chargers +3, U 47.5] - Ugh.  Homer pick, but I'm making it.  Way too optimistic, but it's hard for me to pick against them...

Broncos 31 - Panthers 23  [Broncos -3.5, O 47] - This line just seems to low, Peyton has been playing at a very high level.  Think the Broncos roll here.

Dolphins 20 - Titans 17  [Titans +6, U 44.5] - I'd expect a low scoring game, give me the points.

Ravens 27 - Raiders 20  [Raiders +7.5, O 46] - This one's too close, so I'm taking the points.  Hate picking the Raiders, but so it goes...

Falcons 31 - Saints 27  [Falcons -2, O 53] - This should be a fun game to watch, and I would not be shocked at all to see the Saints win this.  However I'm still taking the Falcons to stay undefeated for another week.

Vikings 20 - Lions 17  [Vikings +3, U 46.5] - I think the Vikings pull off the upset at home here.  They'll be without Percy Harvin, but the Lions have struggled all season.

Seahawks 24 - Jets 20  [Jets +6.5, O 38.5] - I think the Seahawks ultimately win here, but I'd look for a fairly close game.

Eagles 24 - Cowboys 23  [Eagles +2.5, O 44.5] - Two very disappointing teams, but I think Romo manages to out-disappoint Vick.  Give me the Eagles in a slight upset.

49ers 27 - Rams 20  [Rams +12.5, O 38.5] - Niners are clearly the better team, but 12.5 is a big spread to cover for a defensive-minded team.  Niners win, but don't cover.

Texans 24 - Bears 23  [Texans +1.5, O 40] - This should be a close, tough game.  I'm excited to watch it, but I think ultimately Schaub makes fewer mistakes than Cutler and the Texans edge it out.

Steelers 31 - Chiefs 17  [Steelers -12, O 42] - A pretty large spread, but the Chiefs are just plain bad.  Steelers at home in a primetime game, they should put up a lot of points.

Previous Week - Pick 'em: 13-1 (93%), ATS: 11-3 (79%), O/U: 10-4 (71%)                             

2012 Season - Pick 'em: 68-32 (68%), ATS: 52-45-3 (54%), O/U: 58-41-1 (59%)



Pick-6: Take it to Vegas....

Denver -3.5

Patriots -11

Giants -3.5

Vikings +3

Steelers -12

Falcons -2

Previous Week's Results: 5-1 (83%)

2012 Season Results: 21-20-1 (51%)

*This pick wasn't technically wasn't posted before the deadline, but I do have a screenshot to prove I took them with the line in my against the spread pick'em league (at -3).  Maybe you don't like that I'm counting it.  But tough, I make the rules....

Week 9: Flipping Coins

Yeah so I was at the UCLA - Arizona game (which we won 66-10 by the way) and forgot to post my picks.  Super quick here are the picks, I'll plan on adding commentary later....of course I realize that takes the fun out of it if I post it after the games start, but maybe I'll wake up early...

Broncos -3.5 O 47.5
Ravens -3.5 O 42
Packers -10 O 43.5
Bears -3.5 U 43.5
Colts +2.5 U 43.5 (Colts win)
Redskins -3 U 48.5
Lions -4 O 44
Texans -10 U 48.5
Raiders -1.5 O 45
Vikings +5 O 38.5 (Seahawks still win)
Steelers +3.5 U 48.5 (Steelers win)
Falcons -3.5 O 46.5
Saints -3 U 52.5


Previous Week - Pick 'em: 11-3 (79%), ATS: 8-6 (57%), O/U: 6-8 (43%)                             

2012 Season - Pick 'em: 55-31 (64%), ATS: 41-42-3 (49%), O/U: 48-37-1 (56%)



Pick-6: Take it to Vegas....

Colts +2.5
Ravens -3.5
Falcons -3.5
Redskins -3
Steelers +3.5
Bears -3.5

Previous Week's Results: 4-2 (67%)

2012 Season Results: 16-19-1 (46%)

Week 9 Appetizer



This movie poster doesn't list the supporting cast, but I assure you it includes Norv Turner


Yes, AJ Smith is referred to as the "Lord of No Rings," and I believe he has earned that title.  It has gotten to a point where as a lifelong Charger fan, I'm not sure what to root for.  Obviously I always root for the Chargers to win games, but that may be the wrong strategy in this scenario.  See, Norv and AJ were supposed to be gone after last season (and the season before that, and the season before that, etc.), but their jobs have been repeatedly saved by Norv's late season turnarounds.  We've already seen for several years now that this formula doesn't work, because the turnaround never carries into the playoffs.  The last thing I want to see is a late season rally that gets us to 8-8 (missing the playoffs for the 3rd year in a row) and somehow these guys keep their jobs.  If bad losses to the Browns and Chiefs would get them out, I'd be all for it.  Norv and AJ should be looking for new jobs...*

As for tonight's game....well, it's at home, and against an opponent that's actually more pathetic and just as poorly-coached as us, so we have a legit shot at a win here.  The reasoning above explains why that might not be a good thing.  But in the picks department, I'll take the Chargers to win, but give me the Chiefs with the points (+8.5), and Under 43.  Chargers 20 - Chiefs 17.


*I read a report this morning that AJ Smith was in my neighborhood at the UCLA Bruins football practice scouting our players.  That's fine with me, but I just hope he wasn't here looking for a new job to try and ruin another favorite team of mine

Week 8: Flipping Coins

R.I.P. Chewbacca

Lately everyone has been talking about Cam Newton and his "moping" ways.  It all seems a bit overblown to me, but it did give me a chance to post this picture of him wearing Chewy's coat.  I think things will still turn out alright for Cam, but this week against the Bears is going to be rough.

I had a pretty solid performance last week, so I'm hoping for another one here to keep pushing those percentages up.  Some good games coming up this Sunday, but I'm hoping the Bolts win easily.  Let's see the picks....

Week 8 Appetizer

Lost track of what day it was and I almost missed the deadline!  Simply posting this here for accountability, I'll be breaking down the rest of the games prior to Sunday (a lot of tough calls, but after a brief preliminary look I like Chargers -2.5, Falcons +3, Giants -1.5, Patriots -7, and Washington +5 so far).

For tonight, give me Tampa Bay Bucs +6.5 and Under 44.  I still think the Vikings will come out with a win, but I'll say it stays close at Vikings 23 - Buccaneers 17.  And since I was on the fence for this one and didn't have a strong feeling either way (think of that monkey flipping a coin) this will NOT be one of my "Pick-6's" for the week.  Enjoy the game!

Week 7: Flipping Coins

I wanted to teach Keith a lesson for continuing to pick the Chargers!

Ugh.  That Monday night game hurt.  Rivers made far too many mistakes.  It was just a terrible collapse.  Norv has a week off to try and figure things out, but I still don't think it will matter.  San Diego just isn't going anywhere with Norv as coach, and his leash has been extended far, far too long (future blog post coming).  Hopefully Sunday will provide an entertaining slate of games that can help me forget about the Chargers' problems for awhile. 

On to the games...

"Y'all want some appetizers?"

I flew to Texas, so I think we missed this sign....

So I'm currently in the Lone Star State for the week.  I figured the title was appropriate since that was the question I was asked a few hours ago.  The whole "y'all" thing seems like a stereotype or joke when you live in California, but it's very real here in Texas.  Nevertheless it's always cool to see a new place, and fall seems like the right time to be in Texas (not too hot, cold, humid, etc.).  I am however very upset that the week I am in Dallas is a week in which the Cowboys have road games before and after my trip.  Plus the Rangers couldn't make the ALCS, so no sporting events for me....just like how I was in St. Louis for a week in July while the Cards had all road games.  Bad timing...

Anyway I've been busy and I realized I didn't have time to give my full breakdown for the week.  So this will be the abbreviated version just for the Thursday night game.  I figured y'all would want the appetizer:


Seattle Seahawks (+8.5 / U 38.5) @ San Francisco 49ers

So I'm not really buying the Seahawks.  Yes they just beat the Patriots last week, but I believe that game was a bit of a mirage.  I've mentioned before that I think Seattle has the strongest home field advantage in the league, and that only gets amplified when you have an east coast team flying across three time zones to play them.  Seattle does have a very legit defense, but their offense leaves much to be desired.

The 49ers are coming off of a terrible loss in which they were dismantled at home by the Giants.  I didn't get a chance to see much of that game, but I think the 49ers are still one of the strongest, most balanced teams in the NFL right now.  I think San Fran comes out with a win here, but since both of these teams have very strong defenses, I'm taking the points in a close game.  (Sidenote: another reason I'm taking the points here is that these Thursday night games have had a tendency to produce sloppy, low-scoring games.  Historically, a significantly higher margin of the Thursday night games have gone under the expected total.  This may be because of the short week causing problems with rest, healing from injuries, less time to prepare and gameplan, etc.  Whatever the reason, I'm taking the points in a low scoring affair).  49ers 20 - Seattle 16

See y'all when I get back to the west coast!

P.S. The line keeps moving, but I'll lock in at +8.5.  I'm including Seattle in my Pick-6 too.  Let's keep it close Seahawks!

Week 6: Flipping Coins

Well this is annoying.  I had an entire post written and formatted (although I hadn't gotten around to any pictures or clever captions yet).....and now it's gone.  I may go back and re-do it, but I don't have time at the moment.  However I will still post the picks here since there is a game tonight.  My apologies for the poor presentation and lack of commentary.....

Week 5: Flipping Coins



WHAT!?!?  Keith caught up to me???



Well I'd love to boast and brag about my 80% success rate against the spread last week, but then I'd have to remind you of my 20% rate in Week 3.  Fortunately these two weeks balance out to a nice even 50%, meaning I'm at least keeping pace with the monkey flipping coins!  Alright, on to the Week 5 "expert" picks.....

Week 4: Quick Slants



Tony Romo was playing against someone who owned Tony Romo on their
fantasy team.  So he was actually pretty happy about those 5 interceptions...


So after Week 3 provided so many bizarre headlines and stories, Week 4 was relatively quiet.  The regular referees were back in action, I had a very good week in the picks department, and the Chargers won in a blowout.  Order has been restored in the universe.  Somehow I managed to get 12 out of 15 right in my picks, against the spread AND picking winners.  Picking against the spread is supposed to be much harder than picking winners, go figure.  Anyways.....

Week 4: Flipping Coins



Ed Hochuli is back, and he has spent the entire offseason
lifting weights.  Get ready for the gun show America!

Well as I discussed in my Week 3 Recap, it was a brutal week to start making picks.  My picks were embarrassingly bad, and I encourage you to ignore the totals at the bottom.  I'm blaming the refs for my Green Bay pick being wrong, but I bet the people involved in the $250 million exchanging hands in Vegas were just a little bit more upset.  I could start making more excuses, but I think it was just a crazy week in another crazy year of the NFL.  While picking against the spread is supposed to be a 50-50 endeavor, through the first 3 weeks over 60% of underdogs have won.  So maybe I should take some more underdogs?  That would probably be enough to reverse the trend and have all the favorites win.......Okay, on with the picks:

Week 3: Quick Slants



This image of chaos is likely burned into most Packer fans' brains by now


So where do I even start....?  Week 3 of the 2012 NFL season had to be one of the most bizarre/incredible/unbelievable/crazy/(fill in adjective here) weeks I have ever witnessed in the NFL.  And I was saying that before Monday night's well discussed clash between the Packers and Seahawks.  It seems like the universe recognized that I started a blog and wanted to make sure I'd have plenty to write about.  And I do, I just don't have the time or energy to discuss all of the ridiculous things that happened on Sunday and Monday.  But I'll try to briefly cover some of the major points below:

Week 3 - Flipping Coins

So in a perfect world I would have started this in Week 1.  Or in 2011.  Or well before that.  But in any event, I'm starting Week 3 of 2012.  Just assume that every pick or call I've made before now was 100% correct.  And this public posting of my thoughts will likely continue that trend make me look like an idiot.  My goal is to have a weekly breakdown of all the games with a prediction for the score.  I figured that I spend enough time thinking and talking about NFL matchups, I might as well write some of it down and hold myself accountable.  I'll be keeping track of my overall win-loss record as well as my record against the spread (ATS).  If either of my percentages start falling below 50%, it will be comforting to know that a monkey flipping a coin can beat me.  I welcome anyone to challenge me and the coin-flipping monkey by posting your picks in the comments section below.

Without further ado, let's get to the breakdown...

You had your players hit my players!!! What do you think this is, football?