Week 3 - Flipping Coins

So in a perfect world I would have started this in Week 1.  Or in 2011.  Or well before that.  But in any event, I'm starting Week 3 of 2012.  Just assume that every pick or call I've made before now was 100% correct.  And this public posting of my thoughts will likely continue that trend make me look like an idiot.  My goal is to have a weekly breakdown of all the games with a prediction for the score.  I figured that I spend enough time thinking and talking about NFL matchups, I might as well write some of it down and hold myself accountable.  I'll be keeping track of my overall win-loss record as well as my record against the spread (ATS).  If either of my percentages start falling below 50%, it will be comforting to know that a monkey flipping a coin can beat me.  I welcome anyone to challenge me and the coin-flipping monkey by posting your picks in the comments section below.

Without further ado, let's get to the breakdown...

You had your players hit my players!!! What do you think this is, football?

 

• New York Giants (-2 / U 49.5) @ Carolina Panthers

Giants have been a bit of a mystery so far.  You generally expect reigning Super Bowl Champs to continue their winning ways, but the first two weeks of 2012 have been very shaky for the Giants.  An opening day loss to the division rival Cowboys was a rough start, and last week's narrow victory against the Bucs shouldn't be making New York fans very comfortable.  And to make matters worse, the Giants will reportedly be without two of their key playmakers, Ahmad Bradshaw and Hakeem Nicks.

Carolina's start has been hard to figure as well.  After falling to Tampa Bay in a very poor Week 1 performance, they managed to beat Drew Brees and the Saints in Week 2.  Cam Newton is a special talent, but his inexperience will likely lead to some ups and downs.  In this case, I think the Panthers struggle to keep up with Eli and his passing attack.  Giants 24 - Panthers 20

• Buffalo Bills @ Cleveland Browns (+3 / U 44)

Two teams that seem to have a plethora of problems.  Bills have reason for optimism with C.J. Spiller's solid play, but the rest of the offense is questionable and the defense has failed to meet the preseason's high expectations.  The Browns are a bit of a mess as well with their two key offensive players being rookies.  But their defense has been solid, and I'll take the home field advantage with points here.  Browns 16 - Bills 14.

I'm Jay Cutler, and I like to make the
mopey Jay Cutler face



•  St. Louis Rams (+7.5 / U 44) @ Chicago Bears

I've never been a Jay Cutler fan, and this week he has already been in the news for shoving his teammate.  The Bears were dismantled by the Packers last week, and I think the offensive troubles will continue.  Matt Forte (aka the entire Bears offense) will not be playing, so I think the Bears struggle to move the chains.  The Rams are better than people think they are, and they should keep this game close.  Bears 20 - Rams 17.

  

•  Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Dallas Cowboys (-7 / O 46)

Dallas seems to be made up of two different teams.  One is a team that has a lot of talent and can compete with anyone in the NFL.  The other is a team that is undisciplined, underacheiving, and the master of the late-game choke.  Week 1 they looked like the former, Week 2 the latter.  This week I think they return to form and put up big numbers in their home-opener against Tampa.  Cowboys 31 - Tampa Bay 23

• Detroit Lions (-3.5 / U 47) @ Tennessee Titans

Titans have looked pretty poor, and it all starts with their highly paid back CJ2K.  The 2K initially stood for the 2,000 yards he was going to put up, but he's leaning closer to CJ0K.  The O-line hasn't done him any favors, but he gets a large share of the blame.  Ultimately I think Stafford and Megatron bounce back in this game and win on the road.  Lions 28 - Titans 17

• Jacksonville Jaguars @ Indianapolis Colts (-3 / U 42)

My Bruin MJD always has big games against the Colts soft run defense, but I think Luck makes enough plays to win the game.  Indy has a nice home field advantage in the dome with the well-trained fans from the Manning era.  You'll hear pins drop while Luck calls the plays, but the noise will cause problems for Gabbert.  Colts 23 - Jaguars 17

 



One terrible Quarterback plus one Tight End that can sorta throw doesn't usually equal NFL success.  


• New York Jets @ Miami Dolphins (+3 / U 40)

While the Dolphins probably won't scare anyone, they should give the Jets a tough test on the road.  I was pretty sure the Jets Week 1 performance against the Bills was a fluke, and last week seemed to confirm that.  I'll pencil in Sanchez for another messy start with a few turnovers, but their defense is strong enough to keep them in the game.  Taking the home team with points in a tough divisional game, but I think Jets squeak by.  Jets 17 - Dolphins 16

• San Francisco 49ers (-6.5 / U 43.5) @ Minnesota Vikings

The only thing that makes you nervous about Minnesota is Adrian Peterson, but the Niners' outstanding run defense will marginalize him.  Despite ongoing concerns about Alex Smith's effectiveness, San Fran currently looks like the team to beat in the NFC.  Look for them to cruise past the Vikings here.  49ers 27 - Vikings 13

• Kansas City Chiefs @ New Orleans Saints (-8.5 / O 53)

To me, the Saints have been the most surprising team of 2012 so far.  I imagined the team rallying together and using the "Bountygate" scandal as a motivating factor.  But thus far, it appears that I discounted the impact of losing Sean Payton.  I've never been too sure exactly how much of an impact the head coach makes, but it seems to be a significant part here.  All of that said, I'm thinking the Saints rebound here in a big way and stomp all over the disappointing Chiefs.  Saints 34 - Chiefs 20

• Cincinnati Bengals (+3.5 / U 49) @ Washington Redskins

Let's not forget RG3 is still a rookie.  He has certainly looked like the real deal, but I'm guessing some turnovers start to give him trouble eventually.  Bengals win a tough one on the road.  Bengals 21 - Redskins 20

• Philadelphia Eagles (-3.5 / U 43) @ Arizona Cardinals

The Cards have an underrated defense, but beating the Patriots was still a fluke.  Lightning won't strike twice here as I think Vick finds a way to limit his mistakes and pick up a road win.  Eagles 27 - Cardinals 13

• Atlanta Falcons @ San Diego Chargers (-3 / O 47.5)

My bias is showing here, but how can I pick against San Diego when we are 2-0 and playing well?  The Falcons do scare me with Ryan, Julio, Roddy, and Gonzo, but I think our defense manages to extinguish The Burner and win a shootout.  I might actually be AT this game, so hopefully if I cheer loud enough I can ensure the Bolts cover.  Chargers 31 - Falcons 27 

• Houston Texans @ Denver Broncos (+2.5 / O 44.5)

Peyton doesn't make a habit of losing two in a row, and Denver can be a challenging place to play.  The Texans are loaded with the running game and a stout defense, but the Denver defense should be able to keep it close.  I think Peyton bounces back from his poor performance on Monday and manages to lead a late game-winning drive.  Broncos 27 - Texans 24


DID YOU JUST DISS THE RAIDERS?!?!

• Pittsburgh Steelers (-4 / O 44.5) @ Oakland Raiders

This line is too low.  Steelers are a quality team, Raiders just aren't.  Both teams have struggled running the ball, but Big Ben's passing attack has looked much stronger than Palmer's.  The Steel Curtain picks up a road win here.  Steelers 27 - Raiders 20

• New England Patriots (+3 / O 48.5) @ Baltimore Ravens

Should be an excellent game (and has a pretty good shot of being an AFC Championship preview), but when you get Bill Belichick, Tom Brady, AND points, you take the Patriots. The Ravens are a legit Super Bowl Contender, and they are playing a primetime game at home, but I still think the Pats find a way to pull out a close one.  Patriots 27 - Ravens 24

• Green Bay Packers (-3 / O 46.5) @ Seattle Seahawks 

Seattle is a very tough place to play, but Aaron Rodgers will find a way to keep the offense moving.  Clay Matthews absolutely destroyed Cutler last week, so I think the rookie Russell Wilson will be looking over his shoulder quite a bit.  Packers 31 - Seahawks 17



Previous Week's Results: 0-0 (0%), 0-0 (0%) ATS                             

2012 Season Results: 0-0 (0%), 0-0 (0%) ATS


Take it to Vegas....

Steelers -4
Browns +3
Rams +7.5
Eagles -3.5
49ers -6.5
Lions -3.5

Results: 0-0 (0%)


And if you're playing along at home, feel free to post your picks, comments, and thoughts below.

-KJ