Week 4: Flipping Coins



Ed Hochuli is back, and he has spent the entire offseason
lifting weights.  Get ready for the gun show America!

Well as I discussed in my Week 3 Recap, it was a brutal week to start making picks.  My picks were embarrassingly bad, and I encourage you to ignore the totals at the bottom.  I'm blaming the refs for my Green Bay pick being wrong, but I bet the people involved in the $250 million exchanging hands in Vegas were just a little bit more upset.  I could start making more excuses, but I think it was just a crazy week in another crazy year of the NFL.  While picking against the spread is supposed to be a 50-50 endeavor, through the first 3 weeks over 60% of underdogs have won.  So maybe I should take some more underdogs?  That would probably be enough to reverse the trend and have all the favorites win.......Okay, on with the picks:

• Cleveland Browns (+12.5 / U 44) @ Baltimore Ravens

I don't give the Browns much of a chance here.  The Browns are in the middle of a rebuilding period (or rebuilding decade....or century....).  The Ravens are looking strong, especially after that clash with the Patriots last week.  I think we see the Ravens build a lead early and drain the clock with a heavy dose of Ray Rice.  That being said, this is quite a large point spread.  In a divisional game I think the Browns keep it close enough to win with the points.  Ravens 24 - Browns 13

• New England Patriots (-4 / O 51) @ Buffalo Bills

The Bills always seem to play the Patriots well (again, divisional opponents).  But the Pats are coming off back-to-back losses against Arizona and Baltimore, so I think they'll be hungry and pull off a big win.  Plus Belichick might be a little upset about that $50k fine, and I've got a feeling he's going to take it out on the Bills questionable defense.  Patriots 34 - Bills 20

• Minnesota Vikings (+5 / ---) @ Detroit Lions

So I can't take an over/under on this game when there isn't a line set.  Maybe Vegas is waiting to see if Stafford plays, but I believe he will.  I think the Lions edge this one out, but the Vikings have looked good.  They shocked everyone with their victory over the 49ers last week, and much of this has to do with Christian Ponder's underrated play.  Oh, and they have some guy named Adrian Peterson too.  Taking the points here.  Lions 27 - Vikings 24





Drinking liquor out of plastic cups after
bars close and deciding to drive isn't
helping to re-ignite "The Burner"


• Carolina Panthers @ Atlanta Falcons (-7 / O 48.5)

"The Burner" is no longer a burner.  He has looked more like a boulder that falls forward a yard or two.  But the Falcons won't need him here as Matt Ryan's passing attack has looked like the best in the NFL right now.  Throw in Carolina's miserable defense (did you see last Thursday's game?), and I think the Falcons win by multiple scores here. Falcons 34 - Panthers 21

• San Francisco 49ers (-4 / O 40.5) @ New York Jets

The 49ers are coming off of a bad loss, but the Jets are dealing with a bigger loss.  Yes I know they *beat* the Dolphins last week (mostly because of two key missed field goals), but they lost their most important player.  No, not Tebow.  Darelle Revis was the anchor of that defense, and probably the only cornerback in the league that forced opposing teams to alter their gameplan each week specifically for him.  Without him, their defense becomes very pedestrian.  Heck, they're so hopeless that they are moving former Trojan RB (booooooooo) Joe McKnight over to cornerback.  Add all of this in to an offense that has no weapons, and you have a team that's heading downhill.  Always seems like an obvious prediction, but I'll bet Sanchez ends up turning the ball over several times.  Niners get back on track here win an easy road win. 49ers 27 - Jets 16

• San Diego Chargers (+1 / U 45) @ Kansas City Chiefs

Well I don't like this pick at all, and I'm already resigned to the fact that I'll probably be hurting my percentages by continuing to pick the Chargers.  But I'm a homer, and I'll take my Bolts here.  We looked bad last week against the Falcons, and now we have to play the Chiefs in Arrowhead, which is always a tough place to play.  If we lose this game I might be forced to start picking against them, but for now, go Bolts!  Chargers 24 - Chiefs 20





Getting a piece of your ear ripped off probably hurts


• Tennessee Titans (+12.5 / O 44.5) @ Houston Texans

The Texans look like they are one of the top 3 teams in football right now, if not the best.  They have a dominant running game along with a stout defense, and this will put them in position to win a lot of games.  I still think they get a win here, but again, 12.5 points is a lot to give up in a divisional game.  I'll say that Locker rallies late to get the Titans back in this game, but it won't be enough to win.  Take the points, Texans 30 - Titans 23

• Seattle Seahawks @ St. Louis Rams (+3 / O 38)

Conventional wisdom would say to take the Seahawks here.  I mean they have looked really good and they're coming off of a Monday night victory (...well, sorta).  But they have a short week to prepare and this frequently disrupts teams' rhythm.  St. Louis is probably better than most people give them credit for, and they get points at home.  I like the Rams to sneak by here, Rams 21 - Seahawks 20

• Miami Dolphins @ Arizona Cardinals (-5.5 / O 39)

I still have no faith in any part of the Cardinals offense other than Larry Fitzgerald.  But the Dolphins don't exactly scare you either, and they may be without their only real playmaker Reggie Bush.  I think the Cardinals defense and special teams make some plays this week, and the Cards manage to cover at home.  Cardinals 24 - Dolphins 17

• Oakland Raiders @ Denver Broncos (-6.5 / U 48.5)

I still don't really understand how the Raiders pulled off that victory against the Steelers last week, but maybe it had something to do with Troy Polamalu and James Harrison not playing.  Regardless I think the universe corrects itself here, as I just can't see the Raiders beating Peyton Manning in Denver.  Broncos cover here, Broncos 27 - Raiders 17

• Cincinnati Bengals (-2 / U 43) @ Jacksonville Jaguars

The Bengals looked pretty good pulling off a road win last week in Washington, and I think they will manage to do the same thing here in Jacksonville.  MJD continues to represent virtually all of the Jags offense, and I don't think that will be enough.  Bengals 24 - Jaguars 17





Sorry guys, but you might be 0-4 after Sunday...


• New Orleans Saints (+7.5 / O 53.5) @ Green Bay Packers

So I keep picking the Saints and they keep punishing me.  So this week I'm taking the Pack, which is probably a good omen for the Saints.  However I do think this game will be close, and might resemble the opening day shootout of 2011.  I think both offenses get on track here, but Aaron Rodgers leads his crew to a close victory.  I'll take Drew Brees and the points, Packers 31 - Saints 27

• Washington Redskins (+3 / U 48) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Tampa has been a hard team to figure this year.  They are leading the league in rushing defense, but their offense hasn't looked like much.  I think RG3 continues to roll here with a road upset.  But a side note on their rookie QB: he is taking WAY too many hits, and at this rate, he won't finish the season in one piece.  But until then, he will continue to give them a spark.  Redskins 23 - Buccaneers 20

• New York Giants (+2.5 / O 46) @ Philadelphia Eagles

So far this year Vick has been an ATM.  Not an Automatic Touchdown Machine, but rather an Automatic Turnover Machine.  And he has been taking an alarming amount of hits (see above note on RG3).  Those two factors combined with the Giants relentless pass rush should cause problems.  If Vick has struggled thus far, just wait till JPP, Tuck, Osi, and company get to him.  I'll take the G-Men on the road here, Giants 27 - Eagles 24

• Chicago Bears (+3.5 / U 42.5) @ Dallas Cowboys

The Cowboys defense has taken large leaps forward this year with the addition of their two corners.  Add in DeMarcus Ware giving Cutler a hard time, and I think we'll see some turnovers.  I like the Bears defense to keep them in the game, but I think the Cowboys manage to get the victory.  Cowboys 20 - Bears 17



Previous Week's Results: 5-11 (31%), 3-12-1 (19%) ATS, 9-7 (56%) O/U                             

2012 Season Results: 5-11 (31%), 3-12-1 (19%) ATS, 9-7 (56%) O/U



Take it to Vegas....

Redskins +3
Giants +2.5
49ers -4
Patriots -4
Broncos -6.5
Vikings +5

Previous Week's Results: 0-6 (0%) ........ouch.  Good thing I wasn't in Vegas

2012 Season Results: 0-6 (0%)


And if you're playing along at home, feel free to post your picks, comments, and thoughts below.

-KJ